Soleimannni killed

Consequences:

• These deaths are a potential turning point in the Middle East and are expected to draw severe retaliation from Iran and the forces it backs in the region against Israel and US interests.

About Soleimani:

• Soleimani=
  unique celebrity status among Iran’s military leaders,
  was highly popular among the hardliners. 
• Very close to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who once called him a “living martyr of the revolution”. 
• Main architect of Iran’s recent foreign operations, mainly in Syria and Iraq.

Impacts:

• The attack has already killed off even the possibility of renegotiating the nuclear deal. 
• Iran might see this as an act of war like any sovereign country would do.
• It could trigger multiple attacks across the region, destabilising it further, cause heavy casualties and help the jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda and the IS regroup and re-emerge.
• Resumed attacks on oil tankers and other low hanging but high value economic targets, particularly in the oil sector

Conclusion:

• U.S. President Donald Trump is responsible for where U.S.-Iran ties stand today as he single-handedly destroyed the co-operation between the two nations established by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by unilaterally pulling the U.S. out of the agreement in 2018 and reimposing sanctions on Iran. 
• By sabotaging the fragile peace  negotiated over years between world powers, Mr. Trump, in a single act, pushed both the U.S. and Iran down a dangerous slope.

Connecting the dots:

• How to think Iran – US relations Impacts India?
• What would be the next step of Iran?

Excerpt from the Editorial- HINDU

A reckless and unilateral act of provocation by the U.S. that could trigger another full-scale war in West Asia.
The strike against Mr. Soleimani and several Iraqi Shia militia members when they were leaving the airport, was apparently in retaliation for the storming of the American Embassy in Baghdad by protesters earlier this week.

Donald Trump is squarely responsible for where U.S.-Iran ties stand today.

He single-handedly destroyed the détente between the two nations established by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by unilaterally pulling the U.S. out of the agreement in 2018 and reimposing sanctions on Iran. 

It might help an impeached President in an election year to divert attention from his domestic woes and mobilise political support, but for a region already struggling to cope with multiple armed conflicts and external interventions, it could be dangerously consequential. 

It could trigger multiple attacks across the region, destabilising it further, cause heavy casualties and help the jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda and the IS regroup and re-emerge. It is unfortunate that the U.S., which is struggling to get out of Afghanistan after 18 years of war, which destroyed the Iraqi state 17 years ago, turning parts of the country into fertile ground for jihadists, is triggering another conflict in the Muslim world.

Impact on India

1. Oil prices up
2. Gold prices up
3. Indain rupee fall by 42 paise
4. Sensex fell
5. 8 million Indian in gulf
6. Remmitance down
7. Current Account Deficit up
8. Radicalisation of youth . India has 2^nd highest shia population
9. Delay in Chabahar port project
10. India need to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran, have their own geostrategic logic
11. Iran has the capacity to influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which could impact India

IRAQI MPS VOTE TO EXPEL US TROOPS

Iraqi Parliament on Sunday called on the government to work to end all foreign troop presence in the country.

Killing of top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a U.S. strike in Baghdad.

Parliament resolutions, unlike laws, are nonbinding. But this one is likely to be heeded: Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had earlier called on Parliament to end foreign troop presence as soon as possible.

The U.S.-led coalition battling the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria said it had halted most of its operations against the militants for now to focus on protecting coalition forces and bases, amid soaring tensions with Iran

TWEET war

“Like ISIS, Like Hitler, Like Genghis! They all hate cultures. Trump is a terrorist in a suit. He will learn history very soon that NOBODY can defeat ‘the Great Iranian Nation & Culture’,” Information and Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi tweeted.

Mr. Trump wrote in a series of tweets that Iran “is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets” to avenge Soleimani’s death. Mr. Trump said the U.S. has identified “52 Iranian sites” and that some were “at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”

Somalia’s Al-Shabaab attacked US troops in Kenya

Jihadists from Somalia’s Al-Shabaab group on Sunday stormed a military base used by U.S. forces in Kenya’s coastal Lamu region, destroying several aircraft and military vehicles, according to Kenyan police and army official.

Iran no longer part of any Nuclear Deal

Iran’s state television reported that the country will no longer abide by any of the limits set under the nuclear deal signed with six major powers in 2015.

• We aim to re-connect, with our Connect Central Asia policy, pronounced in 2012.
• Central Asia as a podium has received renewed interests after the swearing-in of the new Government. India attaining full membership in the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), PM Modi’s historic visit to the five Central Asian countries etc. stand testimony to this.
• All types of land routes- earth+rail+ shipways
  
  India+ Russia+ Iran+ Europe+ Central Asia
  
  Indian Ocean — Iran– Caspian Sea

India, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria (observer).